Forecasters eye disturbance in western Caribbean

Tropical wave could affect western Caribbean

Tropical Depression could form by late this weekend

Most rain will end as we head to sunset and we can expect less coverage on Sunday as the wave moves on and high pressure once again takes more influence over the forecast. If that happens, it will be tropical storm Michael. The system will remain a tropical storm for the next several days with little change in strength.

If it becomes a tropical storm as predicted, Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to bring squally, wet weather to South Florida beginning later today, according to Robert Garcia, senior meteorologist with the National Weather Service. There will be a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours.

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"Large swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the next few days across the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles", the hurricane center said. However, it's worth noting that the Caribbean is usually a favorable location for tropical cyclone origins in October, and historically, when they move into the Gulf of Mexico, more than half of them cross the Florida peninsula.

Residents along the Gulf should keep an eye on the system, which is near the northeastern coast of Honduras and drifting to the northwest. The current forecast track has the depression becoming a Category 1 hurricane by early Wednesday morning and likely bringing storm surge, rainfall and strong winds to the Gulf later this week.

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The storm was centered about 155 miles (250 kilometers) south of Cozumel, Mexico, late Saturday and was heading north at 6 mph (9 kph), with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph (45 kph). The tropical system will approach the Gulf Coast just as the cold front pushes in to approach the Gulf on Tuesday. This storm does not pose a threat to Florida or the USA, but swells generated by Leslie continue to create life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. High temperatures will drop into the low 80s on Friday, with lows potentially dipping into the upper 50s Thursday night.

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